The text usually comes in right after the rate news hits. “Neal, rates are over 7 now. Should I just pull the house off the table until spring?”
I’ve had that conversation four or five times this month.
Here is the short version: Rates over 7% shrink what your buyer can afford, and St. Augustine buyers noticed. Contracts fell by a third in September. But listings are down by a quarter too, so you have less competition than you did a year ago. If you price for the buyer who exists today, not the one from last spring, fall is still a workable time to sell. If you overprice and wait for the market to come to you, this is the season that will punish it.
Prefer to watch? I walk through all of this in under 5 minutes on my YouTube channel, St. Johns Living & Listings.
What did mortgage rates actually do?
The 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.32% on October 22, 2026, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey. A year earlier, the week of October 23, 2025, it was 6.19%.
That’s more than a full point in twelve months. Rates crossed 7% in late September for the first time since early 2025, peaked at 7.40% in the first half of October, and only eased a little this week.
What that does to a buyer’s monthly payment
Here’s the math on a $400,000 loan, principal and interest only:
- At 6.19%: about $2,447 a month
- At 7.32%: about $2,748 a month
That’s roughly $300 more every month for the exact same house and the exact same loan.
Now flip it around, because this is the part that matters to you as a seller. A buyer who budgeted $2,447 a month could borrow $400,000 last October. Today, that same $2,447 only covers a loan of about $356,000.
Same buyer. Same paycheck. About $44,000 less house.
And that’s before Florida adds its share. Your buyer’s real payment also includes property taxes, homeowners insurance and, in a lot of St. Johns County neighborhoods, HOA or CDD fees. None of those got cheaper this year.
How is the St. Augustine market reacting?
I pulled September numbers for the City of St. Augustine from our MLS and lined them up against September 2025.
| Sept 2025 | Sept 2026 | What it means | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-year fixed rate (Freddie Mac) | 6.19% (Oct 23, 2025) | 7.32% (Oct 22, 2026) | Buyers qualify for less |
| Homes that went under contract | 287 | 192 | Down 33%. Buyers pulled back |
| Active listings | 1,589 | 1,192 | Down 25%. Less competition for you |
| Months of supply | 4.9 | 3.9 | Still close to a balanced market |
| Homes sold (closed) | 312 | 270 | Down 13% |
| Median sold price | $407,495 | $453,600 | Closings still reflect summer contracts |
| Average days on market | 92 | 75 | Well-priced homes still move |
| Sale price vs. original list price | 92.8% | 95.0% | Priced right, sellers kept more |
Source: Northeast Florida MLS (realMLS) via flexmls, City of St. Augustine, residential, data pulled October 21, 2026. Rates: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, pulled October 22, 2026.
Contracts are the number to watch
Closed sales lag. A home that closed in September usually went under contract in July or August, when Freddie Mac had rates around 6.66% to 6.69%.
Pending contracts are the early warning. And they dropped hard: from 293 in August to 192 in September. That’s a 34% drop in one month. Some slowdown is normal in September. Last year the August-to-September dip was about 12%. This year it was nearly three times that.
That’s the rate jump showing up in real buyer behavior.
Don’t read too much into that median price
Yes, the September median sold price was up 11% from a year ago. I wouldn’t take that to the bank.
One month’s median moves with the mix of homes that happened to close. Over the past twelve months, St. Augustine’s monthly median has bounced between about $416,000 and $468,500. It’s a range, not a rocket.
Prices are steady. They are not running away.
Should I wait until rates come down to sell?
It’s the most common question I get right now, and the honest answer is: it depends on what you’re waiting for.
If you’re waiting for rates to drop so buyers get more aggressive, nobody knows when that happens. I don’t, your neighbor doesn’t, and the guy on TV doesn’t either. Freddie Mac’s survey rose seven weeks straight, sat at 7.40% for two weeks, then dipped to 7.32%. One small dip isn’t a trend.
Here’s what waiting does cost you for sure:
- Another few months of mortgage, taxes, insurance and upkeep
- Hurricane season worries if you’re still holding the house next summer
- The spring crowd. Every spring, more sellers list, and you’re back to competing with more homes
If you don’t need to move, waiting is a perfectly fine choice. I’ll tell you that straight. But if you’re moving anyway, for a job, a new build, a smaller place or to be closer to family, sitting still doesn’t make the 7% buyer go away. It just puts you in line behind more listings.
I went through the fall-vs-spring tradeoff in detail in my post on the best time to sell a house in St. Augustine.
Who is actually buying in St. Augustine right now?
Picture the buyer who walks through your house this November. They’re not browsing. With rates over 7%, the buyers still out there have a reason to move, and they’ve done the math.
They’ll also be pickier. When every dollar of payment counts, a roof near the end of its life or a 20-year-old AC unit isn’t a “we’ll deal with it later” item. It’s a price cut, or it’s a reason to buy the house down the street.
And a lot of buyers are coming with cash or big equity from a home they sold somewhere else. Rate news hits them less. They still want a fair price.
Will I have to drop my price?
Not if you start in the right place.
Look at the last row of that table. Sellers who closed in September 2026 got 95.0% of their original list price on average, up from 92.8% a year earlier. That gap is mostly price reductions. Sellers who started too high and chased the market down got less.
Here’s what that looks like on a real number. On a home that should sell around $450,000:
- Price it right at $460,000, sell at 98%: about $450,800
- Price it at $495,000, sit, cut twice, sell at 91% of the original: about $450,450, plus two extra months of carrying costs
Same result on paper. One of them took two extra months of mortgage payments, mowing and stress.
In 2021 the market forgave overpricing. In 2026 it doesn’t.
How do I sell to a buyer who’s facing 7% rates?
You can’t change the rate. You can change what the payment looks like for your buyer.
Price for today’s payment, not last spring’s
When I run a pricing analysis now, I look at what the payment looks like for a buyer at today’s rate, not just at the comps. If your list price only works for someone with a 6% rate, you’ve priced for a buyer who isn’t shopping.
Ask about a seller-paid rate buydown
Instead of cutting your price, you can offer a credit the buyer’s lender uses to buy their rate down, either for the first year or two or for the life of the loan. On a tight budget, a lower payment can matter more to a buyer than the same dollars off the price.
How much it costs and what’s allowed depends on the loan program, so this is a lender conversation, not a guess. My preferred lenders can run real numbers on it. If the term is new to you, my Real Estate Dictionary has a quick explainer on seller concessions.
Fix the things that scare insurers
In Florida, the roof, the electrical panel, the plumbing and the HVAC drive insurance, and insurance drives the payment. If a buyer’s insurance quote comes back high, their budget gets even tighter.
A four-point inspection and a wind mitigation report before you list take the guessing out of it. On older homes in Davis Shores, Lincolnville or St. Augustine Shores, this matters even more.
Know your flood zone before the buyer asks
Florida sellers have to give buyers a written flood disclosure. On Anastasia Island, Vilano Beach and anywhere near the San Sebastian or Matanzas rivers, have your flood zone, any elevation certificate and your flood policy cost ready on day one.
What about my next home?
If you’re selling in St. Augustine and buying again in Florida, two things help soften a 7% world.
First, your equity. A lot of sellers I talk to have enough equity to put a big down payment on the next home, which shrinks the loan the rate applies to.
Second, homestead portability. If you have a homestead exemption now, you may be able to carry some of your Save Our Homes savings to your next Florida home. I covered how it works in my post on Florida homestead portability, and Amendment 3 changes some of the math for St. Johns County sellers.
What I would do if I were selling in St. Augustine this fall
- Decide if you actually need to move in the next 12 months. If not, waiting is fine. If yes, waiting for rates is a gamble, not a plan.
- Get a pricing analysis based on what’s under contract now, not what closed in the summer. Pending sales tell you what today’s buyer will pay.
- Have a lender run a buydown scenario next to a price reduction, so you know which one does more for a buyer.
- Get your four-point and wind mitigation reports and fix anything that will scare an insurer.
- Be live by mid-November, before the holidays and well before the spring crowd lists.
- Watch your first two weeks. If showings are thin, adjust early instead of chasing the market down later.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is a 7% mortgage rate a bad time to sell a house in St. Augustine?
Not on its own. Contracts slowed in September, but active listings are down 25% from a year ago, so well-priced homes face less competition. The risk is overpricing, not the rate itself.
Will home prices drop in St. Augustine because of higher rates?
So far they haven’t. The monthly median has stayed in a range of roughly $416,000 to $468,500 over the past year. What has changed is how much buyers can afford, which makes pricing right from day one more important.
Should I wait for mortgage rates to go down before I sell?
Only if you don’t need to move. Nobody can tell you when rates will fall, and waiting adds months of carrying costs and puts you up against more spring listings.
What is a seller-paid rate buydown?
It’s a credit from the seller that the buyer’s lender uses to lower the buyer’s interest rate, either for the first year or two or for the whole loan. Rules and costs depend on the loan program, so have a licensed lender run the numbers.
How long does it take to sell a house in St. Augustine right now?
Homes that closed in September 2026 averaged 75 days on market in the City of St. Augustine, down from 92 a year earlier. Well-priced, well-prepared homes usually go faster.
Do higher rates matter if my buyer pays cash?
Less, but cash buyers still compare your home to everything else for sale. They know other sellers are feeling the rate pressure, and they’ll price their offer with that in mind.
Let’s look at your numbers, not the headlines
A 7% rate is a national headline. What matters is what it does to your street, your price range and your timeline.
Send me a note through my contact page or start on my Sell page. I’ll pull what’s under contract near you right now, show you what a buyer’s payment looks like at your price, and lay out what I’d do. You can read what past clients say on my testimonials page.
If the honest answer is “wait,” that’s what I’ll tell you. No pitch.
I’ve been in Jacksonville since 1990, when my family moved here from outside Chicago. I’m a Realtor® with iHeart Realty, Inc., and I buy investment property in this market myself, so I watch these numbers with my own money on the line too.
This post is general market information as of October 22, 2026, based on MLS data and Freddie Mac’s weekly survey. It is not lending, legal or tax advice. Rates change weekly; talk to a licensed lender about your situation. Past market patterns don’t guarantee future results.